Power. Mother nature style. The kind that can drop a city to its knees. To the tune of billions of dollars and thousands of fatalities. Will the future bring more of these? Scientists aren’t sure, but they certainly anticipate storms that pack a wallop.

“I look at climate with two aspects: intensity (how hot or cold) and variability, which describes how much the weather varies from one week to the next,” says climatologist Laurence S. Kalkstein, PhD, a professor at the University of Miami and the past president of the International Society of Bio-meteorology. “Variability has increased. Things that are more extreme are happening more frequently, but whether that’s a normal trend or whether it’s going to change is very hard to say. We’ve only been taking records for 120 years, and that’s a very short period. But I think it’s safe to say that strong events, due to that variability increase, have been occurring more frequently.”

It’s also safe to say, as you’re about to see, that predictions are not easy.

When is hurricane season?

Most of us keep our eyes tuned to the weather between June 1 and Nov. 30, because that’s the official period of “hurricane season.” However, if you’re near the water, you should know that hurricanes can actually strike any time; it’s just that those are the dates when the ocean conditions are most ripe for storms.“June 1 is no magic number,” Kalkstein says.

“Hurricanes don’t pay attention to the dates. The probability for hurricanes increases as water warms and reaches a peak in September or early October at the warmest and air aloft is at its calmest. However, it’s possible that a hurricane can occur other times of year if the conditions are right.”

Three top killers

1. Hurricane Katrina 2005

   Katrina, which caused more than $75 billion in damages, was responsible for approximately 1,200 reported deaths, including about 1,000 in Louisiana and 200 in Mississippi. Seven additional deaths occurred in southern Florida. Katrina caused catastrophic damage in southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. Storm surge along the Mississippi coast caused total destruction of many structures, with the surge damage extending several miles inland. Similar damage occurred in portions of southeastern Louisiana southeast of New Orleans.

2. Hurricane Hugo 1989
   

   Hugo was responsible for 21 deaths in the mainland United States, five more in Puerto Rico and the U. S. Virgin Islands, and 24 more elsewhere in the Caribbean.
   Damage estimates are $7 billion in the mainland United States and $1 billion in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

3. Hurricane Andrew 1992

   This storm was responsible for 23 deaths in the United States and three more in the Bahamas. The hurricane caused $26.5 billion in damage in the United States. Damage in the Bahamas was estimated at $250 million. — National Weather Service

The problem of predictions

If you’ve got your eye on the weather every night during the news, you’re quite familiar with the fact that many … Read the rest

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